CFUW team post!

[junkyardjesus]

Okay, here's a place we can talk without anyone noticing. We can talk about strategies here, where the wolves aren't likely to hear us.

Comments

[junkyardjesus]

Yeah, I'm not sure either. Honestly, at this point it's hard to tell, and it's too easy for wolves to sway a vote. Unless there's a unanimous vote, it's likely the sheep team will be voted out.

[prodigious]

Well, it's certainly trending more strongly towards Joe and Takeru...

Should we vote? I...really don't have a preference on either, but I don't know if failing to vote would work against us later or not.

[prodigious]

- and tied again, never mind.

[junkyardjesus]

Yeah, I think sticking with Joe and Takeru is our best bet. If nothing else, we'll look consistent.

[prodigious]

We appear to have just missed it.

[junkyardjesus]

Oh.

Oops.

Sorry about that.

[prodigious]

Don't worry! It happens.

[junkyardjesus]

Yeah, it'll be ok.

Unfortunately, looking at the votes and the fact that both us and Rika are alive, I don't think we got the wolf.

[prodigious]

You think it's Rika?

[junkyardjesus]

I'm wondering if it's possible. At least one group switched their votes: Accelerator's group. If they hadn't switched, Rika would have been voted out.

So, either Rika and Accelerator's group are wolves, or they had some reason for switching their vote.

--Or wait, no, they just got eaten, they can't be wolves.

[prodigious]

Accelerator's group was eaten, though, so they must've been sheep.

[prodigious]

- didn't catch the edit until just after I posted, oops.

[junkyardjesus]

It's alright, I'm not that fast at responding.

As things are now, we can figure it's one of two scenarios:

One: We got a sheep team, and Rika is keeping us alive to cast doubt on who the wolf team is.

Two: We got the wolf team, and the other wolves are keeping us alive to make us suspicious of Rika and her suspicious of us.

[prodigious]

Eating us - or Rika, if she's also a sheep - strikes me as a bad move either way, since it makes it that much easier to narrow down how the clue went.

Accelerator seems good at this game, so it's not surprising for him to go, I'd think.

[prodigious]

We have the new clue -

Adam Pierson
Sanosuke/Laguna
Klavier/Lincoln

I'm going to be out for a bit later (though not for a couple more hours), and though I'm sure I'll be back by the end of ousting, I may miss the beginning. It's probably better if you cast the suspicion vote.

Though so far, I'm uncertain as to where to place it.

[junkyardjesus]

It's cool, I'll take care of things tonight when you go. For now, we can focus on talking with them and seeing if we can find out anything.

It's also possible that everyone could want to focus on the first night's clues, which means we would face ousting again. It doesn't happen often, but it's worth keeping in mind.

[prodigious]

Hopefully everyone has better sense than that.

[junkyardjesus]

If they think we didn't get the wolf, they might.

[prodigious]

There may be a wolf left in our clue, but there is definitely a wolf in the other clue. I'd hope that would be enough for people to realize that it's too early to revisit old ground, although of course I'm not going to take anything for granted.

[junkyardjesus]

I'd rather wait too, since I don't want to get Rika ousted if she's a sheep. But other people might see it as assuring that at least one wolf is ousted, since they're even less sure of if they got a wolf or not. But at the same time, if Rika IS a wolf, I doubt the wolves would push to vote from the first clue, since it's equally likely that Rika would get voted out as it would be for us to get voted out.

we could also take this time to find someone trustworthy from the remaining people who haven't been in a clue. Right now, we have five teams not used in a clue, and only one of them is a wolf team. If we can find someone that we're sure is a sheep team, we can talk privately with them and see what they think.

[prodigious]

It wouldn't even assure that they got a wolf out unless they either took a third vote to clean out the last team from the clue, or the last standing were eaten. I can see someone arguing for it, but it seems like a horrible move to make unless there's a clear reason to suspect there's still a wolf left, and not just a vague uncertainty as there is now.

I like the idea of finding someone trustworthy, though that leaves the question of who.

[junkyardjesus]

No, see, if two days pass and we haven't gotten a wolf yet, the shepherd will give a warning. That's how we can know if we get a wolf if we focus on only the first group: if there's no warning, we know we got the wolf, and if there is a warning we know the last person is a wolf.

I'm not completely sure, but I think Cesare and Ash might be good people to talk to. They seem to know what they're doing.

[prodigious]

Oh, I understood that much, I just meant that it would be idiocy to return to the clue now rather than later.

I don't know Ash well, but Cesare is definitely smart. Even if we're not sure of their intentions yet, I'd be interested to know what their thoughts are.

[junkyardjesus]

Okay, I'll go ahead and make a post to them. If we're lucky, they won't show up in the third clue, thus making them clear.

[junkyardjesus]

Here it is!