junkyardjesus | CFUW team post!

Okay, here's a place we can talk without anyone noticing. We can talk about strategies here, where the wolves aren't likely to hear us.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

From:

prodigious

It wouldn't even assure that they got a wolf out unless they either took a third vote to clean out the last team from the clue, or the last standing were eaten. I can see someone arguing for it, but it seems like a horrible move to make unless there's a clear reason to suspect there's still a wolf left, and not just a vague uncertainty as there is now.

I like the idea of finding someone trustworthy, though that leaves the question of who.

From:

junkyardjesus

No, see, if two days pass and we haven't gotten a wolf yet, the shepherd will give a warning. That's how we can know if we get a wolf if we focus on only the first group: if there's no warning, we know we got the wolf, and if there is a warning we know the last person is a wolf.

I'm not completely sure, but I think Cesare and Ash might be good people to talk to. They seem to know what they're doing.

From:

prodigious

Oh, I understood that much, I just meant that it would be idiocy to return to the clue now rather than later.

I don't know Ash well, but Cesare is definitely smart. Even if we're not sure of their intentions yet, I'd be interested to know what their thoughts are.

From:

junkyardjesus

Okay, I'll go ahead and make a post to them. If we're lucky, they won't show up in the third clue, thus making them clear.

From:

junkyardjesus

Here it is!

From:

prodigious

I ran a bit later than I expected, sorry - and I may be called away again not long after ousting closes, but I'm here through the end of it, at least.

From:

prodigious

I'm going to go ahead and cast a vote, since I don't know if it would look good to miss it twice in a row.

From:

junkyardjesus

Yeah, thanks, I was here but not paying attention.

Also the people we were talking to got eaten. At least we were right about them being sheep, huh?

From:

prodigious

It was a good call, yes.

With four teams left who haven't been in a clue, it'll be easy to pick out at least one safe one with another clue.

From:

junkyardjesus

Yeah, there's going to be at least one clear person today, once we get the clue. The problem is they'll probably be eaten tonight, and everyone will want to talk with them.

From:

prodigious

I suppose we'll have to be quick, then.

From:

junkyardjesus

Yeah, as soon as the clue is given out I'll go ahead and make a post to them.

From:

prodigious

It looks like Leo and Crow are the safe sheep.

From:

prodigious

And I've gone ahead and set up a post here.

From:

junkyardjesus

Thanks, sorry about that, I was a little busy tonight.

From:

prodigious

Should I do this?

From:

prodigious

- either way, dinner's about to come out of the oven, so if you get back to this before I do and you think we should do it, go ahead and take care of it without me!

From:

junkyardjesus

Alright, I'll take care of the rest. You did a good job talking with them so far!

From:

prodigious

I'm back, sorry about that!

Are we going to take them up on how we place our vote, or are we rejecting it?

From:

junkyardjesus

You know what? Just ignore him. Ultimately it's our vote, we have to decide for ourselves. Getting threatened into voting one specific way isn't the right way to play this game.

Speaking of votes, what are your thoughts about how we vote?

From:

prodigious

I'm a little worried about having the safe sheep decide to tell people we're wolves, but you're right. I suppose we can always unlock our posts if we're on the spot again and let people decide what they will based on that.

I...am uncertain, honestly. I find Tiffany and Nita least suspicious, because their missing two suspicion votes so far is giving up an excellent opportunity to control who goes up to vote. The first day, the votes were split 4-4-3 at the end; no matter who the wolf was, they could have brought us up to four and then it would've been a coinflip, which at least has a chance of keeping the wolf out. Because they didn't, the wolf definitely went up when they could've protected them. I can't see a wolf letting that chance pass.

The second suspicion vote, it wouldn't matter much if Laguna and Sanosuke were indeed the wolves, because they would've been up regardless. But the other two teams tied, so if we didn't get a wolf that day, they again could've controlled who went up and kept a wolf off the block entirely.

But I'm torn between the other two. I find Parker slightly more suspicious than Lambdadelta, but I don't have anything solid to back that up, honestly - so I feel that I could very easily be wrong about it.

From:

junkyardjesus

Yeah, you're right, with such a close vote there's no way it could have been Tiffany and Nita. And that's kind of why I think Laguna and Sanosuke were the wolves: all the votes went on them very quickly, so the wolves could have jumped on the vote for them to look less suspicious, since there was no way to save them.

...actually, now that I think about it, we can see the vote order in ousting! Parker and Tatsuya voted real quick, but Nita voted near the end. I'm not sure what to make of that, though. If we assume the wolf is either Parker or Tatsuya, why would they vote for a teammate so quickly?

From:

prodigious

Admittedly, that's been bothering me too. If they had reason to believe the vote was going to go that way, then I could see jumping on it quickly so they don't look suspicious by voting later, but that is a rather large "if," and the fact that Sanosuke and Laguna were leading in suspicion doesn't ensure that the voting is going to go straight for them, either.

I could see them offering up a teammate as a sacrifice, but it'd be risky to do it if they didn't already have reason to believe the ousting was going to be a lost cause anyway.

From:

junkyardjesus

The thing is, there was a majority vote on them even in the suspicion poll, and none of the teams in this clue voted for them. Tiffany's team at least had the excuse of not voting at all, and Parker's team voted for a team that didn't go up to ousting, but Lambdadelta's team suddenly switched from Adam to Sanosuke right at the start of voting. That seems really weird to me, especially since the person they voted for in the suspicion poll went up for ousting.

You know, the more I think about it, the more I think we're both right: Lambadelta's team really is the wolf team. I think we should put our vote on them.