CFUW team post!

[junkyardjesus]

Okay, here's a place we can talk without anyone noticing. We can talk about strategies here, where the wolves aren't likely to hear us.

Comments

[prodigious]

I'm back, sorry about that!

Are we going to take them up on how we place our vote, or are we rejecting it?

[junkyardjesus]

You know what? Just ignore him. Ultimately it's our vote, we have to decide for ourselves. Getting threatened into voting one specific way isn't the right way to play this game.

Speaking of votes, what are your thoughts about how we vote?

[prodigious]

I'm a little worried about having the safe sheep decide to tell people we're wolves, but you're right. I suppose we can always unlock our posts if we're on the spot again and let people decide what they will based on that.

I...am uncertain, honestly. I find Tiffany and Nita least suspicious, because their missing two suspicion votes so far is giving up an excellent opportunity to control who goes up to vote. The first day, the votes were split 4-4-3 at the end; no matter who the wolf was, they could have brought us up to four and then it would've been a coinflip, which at least has a chance of keeping the wolf out. Because they didn't, the wolf definitely went up when they could've protected them. I can't see a wolf letting that chance pass.

The second suspicion vote, it wouldn't matter much if Laguna and Sanosuke were indeed the wolves, because they would've been up regardless. But the other two teams tied, so if we didn't get a wolf that day, they again could've controlled who went up and kept a wolf off the block entirely.

But I'm torn between the other two. I find Parker slightly more suspicious than Lambdadelta, but I don't have anything solid to back that up, honestly - so I feel that I could very easily be wrong about it.

[junkyardjesus]

Yeah, you're right, with such a close vote there's no way it could have been Tiffany and Nita. And that's kind of why I think Laguna and Sanosuke were the wolves: all the votes went on them very quickly, so the wolves could have jumped on the vote for them to look less suspicious, since there was no way to save them.

...actually, now that I think about it, we can see the vote order in ousting! Parker and Tatsuya voted real quick, but Nita voted near the end. I'm not sure what to make of that, though. If we assume the wolf is either Parker or Tatsuya, why would they vote for a teammate so quickly?

[prodigious]

Admittedly, that's been bothering me too. If they had reason to believe the vote was going to go that way, then I could see jumping on it quickly so they don't look suspicious by voting later, but that is a rather large "if," and the fact that Sanosuke and Laguna were leading in suspicion doesn't ensure that the voting is going to go straight for them, either.

I could see them offering up a teammate as a sacrifice, but it'd be risky to do it if they didn't already have reason to believe the ousting was going to be a lost cause anyway.

[junkyardjesus]

The thing is, there was a majority vote on them even in the suspicion poll, and none of the teams in this clue voted for them. Tiffany's team at least had the excuse of not voting at all, and Parker's team voted for a team that didn't go up to ousting, but Lambdadelta's team suddenly switched from Adam to Sanosuke right at the start of voting. That seems really weird to me, especially since the person they voted for in the suspicion poll went up for ousting.

You know, the more I think about it, the more I think we're both right: Lambadelta's team really is the wolf team. I think we should put our vote on them.

[prodigious]

I'm fine with that, although our vote won't be enough to get them into ousting unless someone else switches. Would you like to do the honors?

[junkyardjesus]

Sure, I'll go ahead and do it. And don't worry if they don't go up to ousting today, We'll get another chance tomorrow.

[prodigious]

And then there's the question of our ousting vote.

[junkyardjesus]

I say we just wait for Rika to vote, and then vote the opposite of what she does. it won't matter much if we have two sheep up for ousting, but if there's a wolf there Rika definitely won't vote for them.

[prodigious]

And seeing your question to the game as a whole...should I be ready to unlock that post with Crow and Leo?

[junkyardjesus]

Definitely. And include a link to the part where he said he would tell everyone we're wolves if we didn't vote the way he told us to, when you link the post as a whole.

[prodigious]

Looks like Rika just voted on Tiffany and Nita, so since we were leaning towards voting on Parker anyway...shall I go cast that?

[junkyardjesus]

Yeah, go ahead and do that. I want to talk to Tiffany and Nita tomorrow anyway, we need to keep them alive if we can.

[junkyardjesus]

Okay, I think it's obvious who is the wolf from the third clue. If we're right about Rika being a wolf, we're going to have to convince everyone else of that too. It's something to keep in mind for Tuesday.

[prodigious]

Right. That could be tough. She's pretty good at this.

[junkyardjesus]

As long as we try our best, that's what counts. And who knows, we might get lucky and she might slip up today.

Also, I'm going to be gone for ousting today. I might show up right at the tail end of it, but it's going to be up to you to take care of things, ok?

[prodigious]

I can cast the vote, but I may not be able to keep up on the discussion much - the timing is a little tricky.

[junkyardjesus]

Actually, it turns out I won't be gone after all, so I'll talk today too.

[prodigious]

Oh, good. If you could handle our votes, I'd appreciate it. I'll try to keep an eye on it, but I don't know how much attention I'll be able to afford it. sob, online lecture.

sob work changing my work days w;A;w

[junkyardjesus]

Luckily it's pretty obvious who we'll vote for today, so that's the easy part. Though if we make it to tomorrow, you'll have to handle everything, ok?

sob, the class I'm computerless for is tuesday...

[prodigious]

Tomorrow...is a problem. But let's see if we get through tonight first, I guess. Maybe it won't be an issue at all, or we can talk to the shepherd...

Then we'll just have to put up the votes super-early I guess sob

[junkyardjesus]

We'll probably be going up to ousting tomorrow anyway, so we wouldn't have to vote there. Just for suspicion.

[junkyardjesus]

Looking back at the votes, Tiffany's team voted for Rika during the first ousting. I'm beginning to think that we've been wrong this whole time, that maybe we did get a wolf team out on the first day. Given how close the vote was, I don't think a wolf team would vote for another wolf team, since one switched vote would have gotten Rika out.

Do you mind if I post the same idea to the main post? Also I'm leaving in an hour, do you want me to do the suspicion vote, or do you want to do it?

[prodigious]

May as well put it on the main post. Honestly, at this point I think perhaps we should unlock this - we haven't got anything to hide, and nothing left to lose, either, really. Our defense of Tiffany and Nita is going to look bad in any case, probably - although we could also point out that if we were wolves and knew they were wolves, it would be a stupid risk for us to continue supporting them when everyone else was clearly going in the other direction last night.

I can only assume that the remaining wolf decided that sacrificing them and leaving us to hopefully take the fall for it was a better option - they could have tied the vote and had a fifty-fifty chance of keeping Tiffany and Nita in, but if that chance failed then they'd have a much harder time shifting blame for it.

I'm leaving not long after you, so you can go ahead and place our suspicion vote. Although if we assume we did get a wolf on the first day...I'm not sure which of the two teams that leaves I find more suspicious.